Maurice Newman has an important piece in The Australian this morning argues that voters are fed up with a arrogant political elite ($):
Judged by their on-air performances today’s political elites, like the PM, are captive to a narrow, self-indulgent, outdated, Labor-Liberal paradigm. In their splendid isolation, they are convinced only the extreme, or the uneducated, vote for Pauline Hanson, Jacqui Lambie, Derryn Hinch, Nick Xenophon or other minor parties.
They can’t accept that “smart” voters think differently to them or are tired of what they recognise as a cartelised ruling establishment. So disconnected are they that they believe the masses fall for vague messages of compassion, fairness, jobs and growth. They think slogans that ooze condescension and promote cargo-cult dependency rather than advocate sound financial management and self-reliance fool the majority. In reality, when the people lose trust in their leaders and the system, they pursue narrow self-interest.
Why not? They see unions they never voted for exerting extraordinary influence on public policy. They watch big business win favours from big government at the cost of small business. They know Marxists are indoctrinating their children without their consent and feel powerless to stop it. Without consultation, their freedom to speak is constantly eroded. They feel marginalised.
Meanwhile, the major parties preach brand differentiation. The Liberals boast a broad church but welcome ever fewer conservatives and libertarians. The Labor Party presents as progressive, yet its links to the union movement are medieval and its ever-conscious need to distance itself from the Greens regularly throws up inherent contradictions. Today the brands are as different as Coles is to Woolworths or Ford is to Holden.
For political pundits, support for minor parties can be hard to read, let alone understand. Are the voters genuinely interested in a single issue, are they parking their vote until after the election or, as pollster Mark Textor says, are they sending a message as a pre-election “tickle up” to the parties?
Polling cannot answer these questions. Certainly, tribal loyalty is fading and poll gaming is on the rise. Voters see approaching elections as an opportunity to use polls to leverage the main parties and, in close elections, minor parties can be strategically rewarding.
Inevitably, volatile electorates are diminishing the predictive value of polls. We have seen Brexit, the unchanged New Zealand flag, David Cameron’s unexpected second term and the comfortable win for the Coalition that wasn’t. These results provide evidence that the political class is prone to groupthink and prefers to watch polls than listen to the electorate.
If the voters are gaming the establishment, the political class is using polls to game the people. Recently, a Reuters poll and an American ABC News/Washington Postpoll were exposed as favouring Democratic respondents to flatter Hillary Clinton’s standing.
Whether or not poll manipulation occurs in Australia (was the one before the election, demeaning Tony Abbott and flattering Turnbull, a case?), the people are aware politics is a murky business. They know how unions, crony capitalists and other rent-seekers repay patronage and privilege to the major parties in kind and often with recycled taxpayer funds.
No wonder they have become cynical and mercenary. They are fed up with a system they see as corrupt and self-serving and that treats them as uneducated serfs. They want respect and a government that is culturally confident and economically consistent.
Read the whole article here ($).